Daily strategy (0930 Wed)

On September (month 9) 30, the last day of quarter 3, the speaker expects a fairly unremarkable close amid a lack of momentum and takes a wait-and-see stance, citing the possibility of moves with unclear causes driven by quarter-end position unwinding and redemptions. The speaker observes that yesterday's late-session rebound in Korea carried over into a rebound in the United States, but that concentration around AI-related stocks is intensifying. Using avocado and internet cafe analogies, the speaker criticizes the monopolization of AI-driven gains and excessive expectations and costs, compares OpenAI's announcement to a child's facial expression, and points out the disconnect from realities such as war, energy, and interest rates. Mentioning fatigue with Astra and Muse, the disappearance of ESG, and the reduction of issues to short-form videos, the speaker expresses exhaustion with studying in an era when 80% of the news is about AI. The speaker believes institutions inevitably have to make their decisive moves in October–November (months 10~11) as they work toward closing out quarter 4, and that the second and third weeks of October (month 10) will determine direction, so they should conserve their strength. Describing Korean market buying and selling flows as lethargic and depressed, the speaker sees difficulties despite expectations of 100 trillion for Samsung Electronics in quarter 3, because foreign investors are leaving. For retail investors, the conclusion is to buy only a little, caught between the burden of overhead supply at 6,900 and the market not having reached 6,500. The speaker personally remains on the sidelines, however, and says buying Samsung and Hynix would be considered only if they fall another 3%. Arguing that this is an era for cash, the speaker envisions a scenario with the US 10-year yield at 5.5~6% and believes retail investors also need flexibility through cash holdings. The speaker cautions about declines in stocks outside semiconductors and deteriorating charts, including Hyundai Motor at 30 ten-thousand won and Doosan Enerbility, and concludes by suggesting targeting early October (month 10). All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.