“A Fight Even the US Ultimately Couldn’t End” The Real Reason the Houthi Rebels Are Formidable (Journalist Alpago I Money Focus)
An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.
When Suez volumes fall, has the cargo disappeared?
IMF PortWatch estimates that Suez trade volume fell 50% year over year in the first two months of 2024, while volume around the Cape of Good Hope rose 74%. The routes started from different volumes, so subtracting their percentage changes cannot tell us the loss in total trade. Compare cargo with the same origin and destination, then check actual route volumes and arrival dates to distinguish canceled shipments from delays due to diversion. The Ever Given case illustrates why reopening a channel and clearing delayed schedules are separate events.
Check for yourself
- Which vessel and port records would show whether the same cargo went around the Cape?
- If imports fell this month, how would you distinguish arrivals shifted into next month from canceled orders?
Limits of application
The PortWatch figures are year-over-year estimates for those two months. They do not directly show present route safety, individual arrival dates, or changes in insurance premiums or oil prices.
- What to look for
- Follow the different interests at work, from shifting alliances within Yemen to Saudi border security and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
- Why it matters
- When reading about shipping disruption, check separately whether the route is physically obstructed, whether carriers are diverting because of risk, and what delays are actually affecting arrivals and inventories.
Timeline
8 segmentsThe guest explains how difficulty transiting the southern Red Sea can affect carriers’ route choices and Egypt’s Suez toll revenue. The degree of disruption discussed in the interview requires separate confirmation from traffic volumes and carrier notices for the period.