Did we get hit by a counterpunch?
- What to look for
- You can examine, in a single snapshot, the September (month 9) 28 case in which foreign investors sold 3.6 trillion won, the KOSPI closed at its session low of 6,889, the US 10 year Treasury yield broke above 5%, and Korean interest rates surged.
- Why it matters
- This helps you independently assess the interpretation that hyperscalers absorbing funds are driving interest rates higher, along with the conditions for conservative responses such as following a breakout from the trading range and maintaining a cash allocation.
AI summary
In the September (month 9) 28 indicator review, the speaker reports foreign investors' selling of 3.3 trillion won in the KOSPI main session and 3.6 trillion won in total, along with institutional selling of 1.4 trillion won, and says to postpone aggressive buying until foreign investors turn into net buyers. The KOSPI fell 2.7% to 6,889, closing at its session low, and the speaker assesses that global indices are weak together, including a 1% decline in Nasdaq 100 futures and weakness in Nikkei futures. The dollar/won exchange rate stands at 1,359 won, trapped in a range from 1,340 won to 1,400 won; rather than predicting its direction, the speaker recommends following the move when it breaks out of that range. The speaker identifies hyperscalers and Nvidia absorbing funds as the main cause of rising interest rates, reporting that the US 10 year Treasury yield has broken above 5% and that Korean 3 year and 10 year yields have surged by 11bp and 15bp, respectively. The speaker reviews Samsung Electronics falling by around 5% into the 27 ten-thousand won range, Hynix slipping into the 176 ten-thousand won range, Oracle's data center delays and controversy over its order backlog, Japan's 30 year yield at 4.17%, and gold plunging by around 3%. Viewing whether hyperscalers sustain their headlong expansion as the key variable rather than indicators such as core PCE, the speaker proposes a conservative approach that accounts for the gap caused by Chinese and Korean market holidays, with 40% held in cash. The speaker says to deploy 500 ten-thousand won in installments of 100 ten-thousand won or 200 ten-thousand won and prepare for a 10% probability of a break below 6,500. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.