Ah, I'm screwed.

The speaker reports that Meet Kevin proposed a thesis of peaking yields and a stock rebound, citing the yield on Treasuries with a maturity of 10 years settling at 5.27 and a slowdown in its rise over the latest 5 days. The speaker says the thesis played out as yields plunged during that day's session and the Nasdaq recovered from minus 80bp to minus 20bp. As counterarguments, the speaker introduces Bloomberg's claim that yields on Treasuries with a maturity of 30 years have not peaked, along with technical indicators. The speaker reports that the yield on Treasuries with a maturity of 30 years reached 5.72 and rose nearly 90bp since the start of the year, prompting discussion of a possible test of the 2002 high of 5.87 and of 6%. Given that TLT fell below the 78~77 range for the second time, the speaker says they calculated a scenario in which, as in the 2023 precedent, a further 5% decline could push the yield on Treasuries with a maturity of 10 years to 5.6. The speaker reports that large Treasury issuance and the absorption of funds by SpaceX, Google, Broadcom, and others pushed overnight repo rates to around 3.95%, intensifying debate over the capacity to absorb that funding demand, while the 10s2s spread reached 52bp, exceeding the shock threshold of 50bp. The speaker argues that reports of Trump considering airstrikes against Iran before the midterm elections are a leak intended for public bargaining ahead of an October (month 10) 20~27 deadline for victory, and that there will be no missile launches before the elections, pointing to the absence of retaliation despite attacks on 13 tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The speaker says the AI bubble will ultimately inflate further through additional borrowing and the party will continue, but acknowledges short-term volatility and shock risks. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.