Daily Strategy (0902 Wed)

• Despite the decline in US stocks, the speaker thought recent late-session rebounds in the Korean market could be reflected cumulatively, but viewed this as a period in which anxiety about the system and volatility, together with fatigue, was weighing on the market more than interest rates themselves. • Declining investor deposits and trading value indicate a contracting market, but the speaker also interpreted the US VIX at 16 and reduced Korean volatility as conditions conducive to prices settling and positioning. However, the speaker assessed that domestic retail investors' weak financial and psychological capacity meant the condition of potential buyers was constraining prices. • With a decline from September (month 9) onward becoming the majority view, the speaker said they preferred the long side because interest rates and war were already longstanding factors and the expected return from betting on a decline was low. They also cited a forecast of approximately 1,000 trillion won in annual earnings for Korean companies and their long-term value, while qualifying that actual buying capacity depended heavily on foreign investors. • For that day, the speaker considered it possible that the KOSPI would open sharply lower, narrow its losses during the session, and close around -1.5%, and expected profit-taking in sectors other than semiconductors. They suggested waiting and watching for investors stuck in losing positions and those rebalancing, and entering in stages based on closing prices for new entrants with available cash, while judging that current financial markets were not as unstable as they felt.