[US market update for Thursday, September (month 9) 24] A hot economy, high inflation, plunging bonds, and a stronger dollar!

The presenter assesses that although major US market indexes fell only about 1% on September (month 9) 24, a strong economy and renewed inflation increased concerns about interest rate hikes. S&P Global's PMI rose to 57 for manufacturing, 58.7 for services, and 58.4 for the composite, while new orders and prices paid indexes also increased, suggesting the possibility of companies raising prices and inflation expectations becoming entrenched. Consequently, the US Treasury yield for a maturity of 10 years rose about 15bp in a single day to exceed 5.1%, while a Treasury auction for a maturity of 5 years, totaling 700 hundred-million dollars, revealed weakening demand through a higher issuance yield and a low bid-to-cover ratio. The Treasury's long-term bond buyback amount also fell short of market expectations, intensifying unease in the bond market. The Russell index, focused on small and midsize stocks, was weaker than large-cap stocks, showing differences in the burden of high interest rates. The Iranian president's remarks at the UN General Assembly dampened expectations for US–Iran negotiations, while renewed increases in oil and US gasoline prices added to inflation risks. There were also reports that a temporary ban on diesel exports was being discussed, but this is not a finalized policy. Fed officials said that despite strong growth and a strong labor market, inflation's return to 2% remained uncertain. The presenter argues that the market therefore needs to consider the possibility of consecutive hikes in October (month 10), not just a hike in December (month 12). AI data center investment and high GPU rental rates will support US growth and Korean memory demand for the time being, but it is necessary to watch how much rising interest rates undermine the drivers of growth. The presenter proposes GPU rental rates as a direct indicator of the AI cycle, and credit spreads for companies such as SoftBank and Oracle as leading indicators that contain considerable noise.