[Hong Jang-won's Bull & Bear] If Micron is worth 3000 dollars, what does that imply for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix? The afternoon 10-year auction that calmed fears in the US Treasury market
- What to look for
- One 17-minute video covers the US 10-year Treasury auction results, the rationale for raising Micron's price target, and the key issues behind France's fiscal instability.
- Why it matters
- Understanding how auction indicators, inflation expectations, and valuation debates feed through to interest rates and share prices can help you interpret Treasury auction and earnings-season news independently.
AI summary
The video reports that the US 10-year Treasury auction, totaling 390 hundred-million dollars, was a blockbuster: the stop-out yield was 5.3%, or 1.7bp below the when-issued yield, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77 times, indirect bidders taking 80.3%, and dealers taking 2.5%. Before the auction, the yield had risen as high as 5.36% intraday, its highest since the early 2000s. At that level, buy-the-dip demand from major investors was confirmed, sending yields substantially lower. However, it says it is too early to relax because tomorrow's 30-year auction remains. Despite the strong auction, the S&P 500's response was lukewarm: it rebounded but ultimately closed slightly lower. It explains that the coexistence of a 10-year yield at a 20-year high and a stock index at an all-time high shows that the correlation between interest rates and stocks has weakened. The New York Fed's September (month 9) 1-year inflation expectation rose from 3.6 to 3.9, its highest since May (month 5) 2023. A Reuters survey projected 5.0 at year-end, 4.90 in 6 months, and 4.75 in 1 year, yet 28 of 30 respondents said upside risks were greater. It explains that high rates are becoming entrenched amid competition for AI investment funding, government borrowing demand, and oil-price pressures. The UK 30-year yield exceeded 6% intraday, its highest since 1998, while hyperscaler corporate bonds accounted for 22% of Swiss-franc investment-grade issuance. Micron shares rose more than 4% after DA Davidson raised its price target from 2,100 dollars to 3,000 dollars. The video presents the rationale of demand exceeding supply through 2028, strategic long-term contracts covering half of production capacity, and a market-average multiple of 19 times, alongside the counterargument concerning the industry's cycle. Applying the same logic could imply roughly 80 ten-thousand won for Samsung Electronics and roughly 400 ten-thousand won for SK Hynix, drawing attention to how this combines with Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings due in a few hours. It also says fiscal austerity in France faces difficulties following the rejection of a proposal to reduce pension deductions. All directional forecasts are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.