All the conditions are in place…now we just need a bullish candle! | Park Byung-chang, CEO of MP Partners [Market Inside]

Park Byung-chang assesses that, compared with the strength of U.S. stocks such as Micron, SanDisk, and CPU-related stocks, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are struggling to rise decisively because of selling pressure ahead of the Chuseok holiday. He emphasizes that although the rationale of memory supply shortages and AI inference demand remains valid, actual price signals must be confirmed, such as a large bullish candlestick breaking out of the trading range and the KOSPI establishing itself above the 7,000 level. Samsung Electronics' quarterly dividends, the possibility of a special dividend, and discussions about cancelling preferred shares may be behind its relative strength. He believes that, because other sectors have already risen, the KOSPI could challenge the 7,500 level even if Samsung Electronics merely recovers to around 30 ten-thousand won and SK hynix to around 200 ten-thousand won. He sees October (month 10), when results for quarter 3 coincide with the end of share buybacks, as a potential period for a rebound attempt. However, this is an outlook, not a certainty. Expectations for Middle East ceasefire negotiations have lowered oil prices, but risks from hawkish Federal Reserve remarks and rising interest rates remain. When stock prices are viewed through the relationship between earnings and dividend growth and the discount rate, a key variable going forward is whether the growth generated by AI can sufficiently offset rising interest rates. He also discusses overseas investors' efforts to find Korean companies that address semiconductor equipment and energy bottlenecks, Intel's disclosure of glass substrate technology, and Westinghouse's listing plans. In a market where caution ahead of the holiday is strong, only leading stocks tend to rise, while stocks without a clear investment case can easily become targets for selling to raise cash. He therefore advises watching actual supply and demand and price breakouts separately from growth expectations.