0922 Tuesday / Going to take a little break, hahaha

On September (month 9) 22, Indicator Tracker explains a portfolio manager's habit of checking profit and loss and data daily and keeping a notebook of mistakes, emphasizing that individual investors should use a longer perspective and their own positioning rather than trying to match institutions' speed. Korean stocks gave back their intraday gains despite strength in US semiconductor stocks, weighed down by substantial overhead supply in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix and investors' desire to take profits. Foreign investors bought almost no cash equities, while individual investors sold heavily, making a shift in foreign investor flows in October (month 10) important. With the KOSPI's major moving averages clustered together, a strong directional move could emerge at the end of September (month 9). The speaker suggests treating a large bullish or bearish candle as a sign that an unexpected development has occurred during the session and responding to the trend with small positions. However, with the Chuseok holiday, quarter-end and the end of share buybacks coinciding, the speaker sold Samsung Electronics holdings and most ETF holdings and chose a position close to cash. The won–dollar exchange rate fell to 1,356 won due to exporters' dollar selling, and the US Treasury yield for a maturity of 10 years stabilized below 5%, but the Korean government bond yield for a maturity of 3 years remained above 4%, warranting continued vigilance about further interest rate increases. The speaker believes that, as domestic policy attention shifts from supporting stock prices toward housing, industry and infrastructure, foreign capital could become the key driver of a rerating of Korean equities. Using the expiry of the nearby WTI contract and backwardation, the speaker explains how switching futures contract months can create the illusion of a price decline, and says that gold futures require consideration of contango and rollover costs. Although the Samsung Electronics and SK hynix charts are strong, the speaker will not chase them immediately before the holiday and will wait for the next opportunity, while suggesting that, if a US–Iran ceasefire materializes, some cash should be deployed immediately to follow the move. The speaker concludes by expressing a preference for reducing losses and building wealth through compounding over chasing high returns.