[Combined edition] Is it okay to start accumulating this now?…What investors should watch in quarter 4 (Economic commentator Yoon Ji-ho)
- What to look for
- You can review the rationale for the range-bound market assessment, Nvidia CDS, OpenAI's listing, the refinancing schedule, and remarks on barbell and nuclear power strategies.
- Why it matters
- This helps explain the logic connecting the closely balanced AI cycle and opposing forces to a judgment about accumulating holdings with a view toward 2028.
AI summary
Commentator Yoon Ji-ho characterizes the current market as a sideways, range-bound market in which moves both upward and downward are difficult, emphasizing the importance of identifying the variables that determine stock prices rather than predicting direction. He assesses that the upward drivers were Korean corporate profits stemming from excessive AI investment and expectations of Commercial Act amendments, but that limits to the investment cycle, war, and rising interest rates driven by excessive fiscal spending have become stronger opposing forces. He sees the S&P500 as unattractive relative to bonds at a P/E ratio of 20 times and an interest rate of 5%, and believes that the depletion of cash at hyperscalers, which are the source of cash flowing into semiconductors, along with Nvidia's profits from sales on credit and rising CDS, are capping the upside. He says that whether concerns are easing should be assessed in the order of business, profits, and stock prices, and that the upper bound can open up only when answers emerge concerning money circulation, tokens, and cost reductions. He calls for trading buys within the range, responses tailored to each person's portfolio, and looking inward, citing Peter Lynch. He discloses that he is personally increasing cash holdings, citing quarter 3 earnings, exchange rates, calls to moderate the pace as a signal of cost burdens, and the prisoner's dilemma. Looking at quarter 4 of 2026 through the first half of next year from an investment perspective oriented toward 2028, he presents an outlook for the Q cycle, stable semiconductor margins, and positive hyperscaler FCF, with a probability of 60~70%. He discusses the midterm elections, Kevin Warsh, political variables affecting data centers, a barbell strategy involving financial stocks and quality companies, and approaches to nuclear power, SMRs, and Doosan Enerbility. Citing portfolio restructuring during the October (month 10) earnings season and the time between dog and wolf, he suggests beginning to invest between December (month 12) and next spring. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.