Even Hunger Cannot End the War: What Russia Really Thinks (Professor Ilya Belyakov, University of Suwon)

This interview, lasting 1 hour and 10 minutes or so, examines Russia’s economy, society, and public opinion amid a war that has continued for at least 5 years, with University of Suwon professor Ilya Belyakov. He explains that sanctions and a combination of other factors have caused the prices people experience to rise by as much as twice their previous levels, while depleted budgets have led to substantial cuts in healthcare and welfare. However, oil and gas funds and the fact that the fighting is taking place abroad have limited the apparent impact. He reports that war fatigue has become clear, but bans on protests and controls on the media and entry into and departure from the country leave people with no outlet to express it. Mobilization, he says, is carried out through electronic notices and semi-coerced contracts. He argues that Putin is indifferent to economic indicators and views the conflict solely in political terms, while much of the population shares a worldview that favors a great Russia even at the cost of going hungry, meaning economic pressure will not stop the war. He explains that these sentiments stem from Russia’s distinctive cultural and historical outlook and fatalistic view of death, contrasting them with Korean patriotism and attitudes toward life. He examines Putin’s miscalculation in starting the war, his goal of securing 4 regions, and his strategy of wearing Ukraine down, while pointing out misjudgments about pro-Russian residents in the east and flaws in the NATO rationale. He forecasts a prolonged war, citing the perception of Ukrainians as belonging to the same people and the conflict as a civil war, along with the hesitant stance of the United States and Europe. All forecasts about future developments are the speaker’s conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.