Hormuz shipment volumes have recovered? The real reason you cannot trust the numbers.
Learning guide
- What to look for
- Specific data help explain why charts of crude oil shipment volumes through Hormuz show different figures: whether they include crude oil and petroleum products, whether they include alternative routes, and whether they count shipments at loading or at passage.
- Why it matters
- This helps viewers interpret future reports of recovering shipment volumes during sharp oil price swings by examining the counting methods and the possibility of temporary inventory releases.
AI summary
This fact-check examines claims that crude oil shipments through Hormuz have recovered, comparing the IEA baseline with Kpler, satellite, and Vortexa data to expose pitfalls in the counting methods. It finds that, even including alternative routes, recovery stood at only 67~70% as of the end of September (month 9), with losses continuing at more than 500 ten-thousand barrels per day. It argues that temporary inventory releases, transshipment costs, and insurance costs justify an oil price premium. It maintains a bullish crude oil outlook based on depleted SPR reserves and comparisons with the oil shocks of the 70s. All directional outlooks are the speaker’s conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.