KBS MoneyOlla's monthly Oh Geon-young session takes stock of the rate-hike cycle and its end signals. It covers Japan's fear of hiking, the resulting yen weakness and market-rate rise lifting U.S. long rates, and Takaichi's end of reflation. It explains the carry-unwind structure, in which repatriated capital strengthens the dollar and the yen in a financial-system crisis, through the 8/2024 yen-carry episode. It names three drivers of rising U.S. long rates: Middle East energy pressure with inflation expectations, deficit-driven bond supply, and AI capex-driven growth expectations. It attributes the muted rate response to upside CPI and PPI surprises to heightened growth sensitivity, likening the 17 straight hikes from 2004 through 2007 to scolding until the child cries. It reports the Fed debate into next year between doves seeing one or two more hikes and hawks seeing three or four, with markets expecting three, alongside two or three more Bank of Korea hikes aimed at currency stability. It presents long-term staggered gold holdings and a narrowing or inverted curve as the end-of-hikes signal. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive short-term price predictions.

MoneyOlla_KBS

How Japan's low rates built yen weakness and higher market rates

U.S. pressure and Japan's rate-hike outlook

The dollar and yen that strengthen in a crisis

Three forces lifting U.S. long rates

Reading rates through growth more than inflation

The Fed and the BOK: how many more hikes

Gold and the curve signal

Curve signal for the end of rate hikes... how many more Fed and BOK hikes? [Monthly Oh Geon-young, Part 2]

In a SamproTV global interview, Hanwha Investment & Securities senior research fellow Han Sang-hee says fears of an AI investment collapse are excessive. Amid deja vu identical to July (month 7), the S&P 500 sits just 1.5% below its high and the Nasdaq and Dow 4% down, so the US market — 65% of global equities — is not broken. Noting the Nasdaq rose over 1% on a day rates climbed 6bp, he says to read it as a bonds-versus-stocks fight rather than a rates story, with the November (month 11) 3rd midterm split-versus-blue-wave outcome as the variable. The CoreWeave stock and CDS premium spike reflects balance-sheet trouble, not AI demand, and rising rents on old GPUs plus stable asset-backed debt rates make the crisis talk excessive. He rebuts the Gartner report warning of 2030 write-offs of 3 trillion 5 thousand hundred-million dollars and 80% neocloud shutdowns as close to executive-targeted consulting: the 2027 to 2030 outlook for 6 trillion dollars of investment is itself bullish, and CoreWeave's March (month 3) cash-flow model holds up to 16.5% rates. The Anthropic markdown from 2 to 1.5 trillion dollars reflects doubt about the 1 thousand hundred-million-dollar annualized-revenue goal; he walks through the 168 hundred-million-dollar third-quarter (quarter 3) result and 20x PSR math and says quick listings must deliver clear numbers. For big-tech earnings, cloud revenue and operating profit — not FCF — are the checkpoints, and KOSPI 5700 sits at the low end of a 5200 to 7200 box, a place to buy with the 30% cash raised above 7000. Expanding Fed assets and falling bank card delinquencies mean short-term liquidity is not bad.

SamproTV 3PROTV

Is the AI investment collapse fear excessive? From the CoreWeave crisis story to big-tech earnings | Han Sang-hee, Hanwha Investment & Securities senior research fellow [Global Interview]

United States stocks staged a narrow semiconductor-led rally, recovering on dip buying after CoreWeave bond yields, CXMT, and the CPI had squeezed chips last week. On an equal-weighted view only chips rose while the rest fell, with sector rotation repeating and questions over AI funding and payback persisting. CoreWeave CDS and bond yields repriced default risk into a direct hit on AI shares, and Wall Street is now offering one buying reason at a time. Goldman lifted CoreWeave from Neutral to Buy while cutting the target from 139 to 106 dollars, a paradox enabled by how far the price had fallen. Through a rental-shop analogy, secured bank funding runs at 8 to 10 percent unlike 15 percent unsecured paper, and rising usage fees plus residual value lift returns from 15 toward 20 to 25 percent. The CXMT note sees short-term shock as overdone given the advanced DRAM and HBM gap plus qualification and ramp time, calling Samsung and Hynix attractive below a PBR of 1. Despite Treasury interest above 5 percent, a Bank of America survey puts full fund shifts at 10-year yields of 5.9 to 6 percent, yet Nvidia and Broadcom CDS gains say to watch credit warnings too. All directional views are the speakers' conditional judgments and do not confirm any short-term price forecast.

Maekyung Live

[Hong Jang-won Bull and Bear] Targets cut yet stocks to buy? Rechecking the CoreWeave and CXMT fears

The rebound that ended the chip slide drew on AI strength, softer oil, and 3-way summit talk, yet CoreWeave swings and the coming SpaceX print left it awkward. The S and P index gained 0.4 percent, the Nasdaq 1.1 percent, and Russell 0.3 percent, with Tesla up 3.8 percent, Sandisk 5.5 percent, Palantir 4.4 percent, and Datadog 5.4 percent in a software tilt. Rising rates read as an economic signal, with the 10-year to hold a fair zone, plus oil at 98 dollars, the dollar index at 101.9, and coin at 8 and 2 thousand dollars as transcribed. Dimon optimism and the hike-count lens lead into JPMorgan's 60/40 portfolio earning 7 percent yearly over 10 to 15 years and a Morgan Stanley buy-the-dip call. The Bank of America October (10) hike call and the Hassett reversal frame the October (10) 28 FOMC dilemma against warnings versus a 4th-year bull debate. The 3-way summit, Ukraine pressure, and Iran watch sit beside frontier next-gen models, a 70 to 80 percent Anthropic listing odds hold, and Sky AI at 100 times faster and 150 times cheaper. Goldman buys CoreWeave while cutting 139 to 106 dollars amid neo-cloud crossfire, SpaceX and Netflix prints plus Tesla merger talk approach, and WTI corrects to 103 dollars. All directional views are the speakers' conditional judgments and do not confirm any short-term price forecast.

Sampro TV 3PROTV

JPMorgan Jamie Dimon CEO on a good US economy as transcribed, CoreWeave volatility after a higher open [Wall Street Newsletter]

On the Our Stocks Don't Bite live show, the hosts test whether the bottom is in after the down-draft storm through charts, flows, and the CoreWeave structure. They recall today's rebound — dread in the morning, reversed by 7 a.m. mini-Nasdaq and foreign buying — joking that individuals held back from buying. KOSPI printed a mid-sized green candle after 7 straight reds but never topped the prior high, so recovering and holding the 5900s to 6000s gap is key, with a breakdown risking a 70% slide toward the late 4000s. KOSDAQ looks a weak bounce under its moving averages, with a failed 782 breakout inviting another stab toward 666 as opportunity. They review the Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.23% with the 736 to 749 band, a SOX 463 break dragging Korea 8%, won at 1331 to 1330 per dollar, and weekly plunges of Nasdaq 4%, KOSPI 14%, KOSDAQ 10%, and hynix 25%. They share lessons from an account sliding from 200% to negative with trim-before-averaging discipline, plus Samsung and hynix single-day 7% moves and this week's earnings and rate-decision calendar. CoreWeave's weekly 25% and monthly 27% fall frames a teardown of its 13 hundred-million-dollar loss, 141 hundred-million equipment spend, minus 100 hundred-million free cash flow, 15 to 16% bond yields, Nvidia's 10% stake and guarantees, and the circular-investment debate — a matter of time. After AI token tales and roadster banter, they close on individuals selling 2 trillion won versus foreigners buying 7 thousand hundred-million, with about 5 business days of holding as the task.

Our Stocks Don't Bite

Past the down-draft storm? Is this the bottom?

Forbes reports on Elon Musk's 1-share SpaceX gift pledge. In an early-Monday X post, Musk said he would give 1 SpaceX share from his holdings to every child in America next year, calling it the first of many. He offered no specifics on when in 2027 the shares would go out, how eligibility would be set, or how they would reach millions of American children. The wording my SpaceX shares points to a transfer from his personal holdings rather than newly issued shares. The video also covers SpaceX president Gwyn Shotwell and her husband's early-year pledge to Trump Accounts, the Treasury's expansion allowing individual-stock donations with a 5-year holding requirement, and Anthropic's 5% benefit-fund announcement plus the direct-distribution debate. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive short-term price predictions.

Forbes

Elon Musk to give every child in America 1 SpaceX share next year

The Micron cheapness fight pits zero debt with 1,000 in cash and 1,300 in free cash flow in hundred-million-dollar units funding buybacks at 6 times against the reply that none of it matters once order books dry. Take-or-pay covering 40 percent of year 27 revenue sparks a 1-year versus multi-year peak fight alongside a Dan Ives software analogy and steady-demand claims. Trimming AI but adding Meta rests on the product-company, balance-sheet, and founder logic, with Meta targets at 820 and 900 dollars plus top-sized TSMC and a smaller Nvidia. Neo-cloud stress reads as a rate story while a 20-year worst chip slide with Mag 7 ahead 10 days straight and hedge-fund exits frames a good setup instead. Agreeing with Mike Wilson dip-buying, single-stock swings at 3 times with furious rotations argue AI and tech are buys. Unresolved 102-dollar oil and high yields doubt the broadening comeback, with defensive-energy skew, Dimon boom talk, and a 121 to 144 dollar consumer name. Missing out if no peak within 1 year, holders of tight compounders await November (11) to December (12) momentum with elections and earnings ahead. All directional views are the speakers' conditional judgments and do not confirm any short-term price forecast.

CNBC Television

Did semis price in a crash? What you need to know

The broadcast reports the Nasdaq up 1.43 percent with tech, chip and AI strength, while KOSPI night futures rise 0.2 percent. It names Goldman's positive CoreWeave report as the first driver, introducing the 106-dollar target and 73 percent upside case. It says Goldman sees high GPU rents, 4 thousand hundred-million dollars per megawatt on short terms with July (month 7) 25 percent and October (month 10) 10 percent hikes, lifting rental income, while collateral-led new funding keeps rate burdens low. It names Morgan Stanley's hyperscaler capex hike as the second driver: 1 trillion dollars in 2026, up 60 percent in 2027, and just under 20 percent from 2027 to 28. It reads Microsoft's exit from Nscale's UK project as power-delay fatigue rather than demand loss, ignored by stocks. It covers Musk's SpaceX share-gift proposal and Anthropic's 5 percent public-benefit fund plus new-model news. Despite intelligence edges, frontier-lab spend share shrinks as money moves to Chinese open-weight models, raising 2028 to 29 chip and hardware damage fears. All directional views are the speakers' conditional judgments and do not confirm any near-term price forecast.

Tomorrow's Investment King - Kim Dante

The real reason behind the Nasdaq rally

Rsanmoo's day strategy for Tuesday, October (month 10) 20th. Yesterday's bounce brought relief, but he sees funds unwinding into an early winter amid a 20% monthly slide shock. The US session was no strong tape despite the Nasdaq's over 1% gain, fading into the cash session and dawn, while Korea's premarket tracked US futures. He likes index levels — buying 5500 toward 7000, a 1500-point 22% run — but draws the line at single names. Despite a Blue House press-room mention of stocks, he rates government or Trump pump odds low, and names the core issue as shaken faith in AI itself over IB outlooks. Rail and drone analogies argue consensus futures never arrive, and he warns of debt and bailout hangovers if AI frustrates. After asides on old-money patience exhaustion and immortality-conspiracy musings, he prescribes a probabilistic response: up or down, buy 2% of total weight near the close, a little each day. An institution would short — meaning hedge — here, but already trimmed with no hedge benefit left, he buys; a 5200 to 5300 break opens the fear zone. He adds buying Samsung Electronics and SK hynix only on plunges, KOSDAQ at 666, trimming some buys on a Friday 5% KOSPI gain, buying a 7% intraday drop, and flash-crash caution.

Rsanmoo

He believes cash must never be fully exhausted. As the video says, this is a phase where asset managers mind hedges more. And no articles have yet appeared saying Nasdaq 100 futures shorts rival longs.

A breather, but no strong tape

Levels say buy the index, pick the names

Low stimulus hopes, shaken AI faith

Consensus futures never arrive

A fan's eyes and old money's patience

Today's play: buy 2% into the close

Single-name tactics and flash-crash watch

Day strategy (1020 Tuesday)

A learning note on long-rate drivers, Fed and BOK hike outlooks, and the end-of-hikes curve signal.

Curve signal for the end of rate hikes... how many more Fed and BOK hikes? [Monthly Oh Geon-young, Part 2]

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