Bond-market collapse & breaking news involving Trump and Iran

The speaker interprets Trump's phone call with reporters before the futures market opens as damage control intended to prevent a Black Monday, and says they will review the Iran negotiations and the bond market. They relay Axios's reporting on expectations for additional negotiations this week, Iran's demands for sanctions relief, the release of seized funds, and an end to the blockade, and Trump's willingness to make a deal. Citing demands for compensation related to the framework from 1 year ago, the maritime and air blockades, and an analogy involving a Florida home, they assess the negotiations as being in a bargaining phase rather than having broken down. They group Iran's acceptance of IAEA inspections, the IAEA's swift response, the shipment of 2000 ten-thousand barrels per day through Hormuz, and Qatar's shuttle diplomacy as positive signals. They say they view CENTCOM's denial of a drone seizure with reservations, citing its reversal over escorts through Hormuz. Referring to a history of 16 ruptures during bond surges, the WSJ's argument for movement in both directions over the long term, and contrasting examples from 1994 and 2016, they anticipate that liquidation is progressing. Alongside a warning that failure over Iran would mean economic collapse, they conclude that they expect the gap to close relative to where the market would be without the Iran situation, rather than a return to the previous high. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.