“You'll regret not buying”: The timing of an October (month 10) rebound identified by Shuka, Park Se-ik, and Kwak Sang-jun
- What to look for
- You can see how bullish commentators develop their arguments, from the range-bound structure created by foreign investors selling both calls and puts to TGA and interest-rate seasonality, the data-center gold-mine thesis and the pricing-in of a subprime-scale crisis, and fund-flow variables involving ISAs and taxation.
- Why it matters
- Understanding this material lets you examine how evidence about fund flows, seasonality, and valuation connects to investment arguments, and provides reference points for interpreting market commentary critically.
AI summary
Representatives Park Se-ik and Kwak Sang-jun diagnose the KOSPI as a range-bound market hemmed in by foreign investors selling both calls and puts, and foresee it seeking an upside breakout as interest rates fall starting in the third week of October (month 10). In contrast to new highs in the US Nasdaq and S&P, they interpret weakness in the Russell 2000 and foreign selling as capital movements by parties needing money because of high interest rates, and explain the seasonality of September (month 9) weakness and releases from the TGA. They describe long-term interest rates in the 5% range as rates reflecting a strong economy, citing the data-center gold mine represented by AWS's 37% growth and 39% margin, while identifying late entrants, overseas players, and SoftBank's funding sources as risks. Citing Bill Ackman's argument for investing in big tech unconditionally, the pricing-in of a subprime-scale crisis, and waves of CPI inflation during the Volcker era, they present the current situation as a bargain-buying opportunity. They describe Korea as suffering from depleted liquidity, with even 30 trillion won in insurance policy cancellations tapped for funds, and identify US-style rules and shareholder returns to attract foreign investors, along with 20 trillion won in ISAs and tax reform, as solutions. They argue that despite having the world's highest rate of increase, the KOSPI is fairly priced on a PBR basis, and take a positive view of quarter 4 based on B2B cycle trading, the Halloween strategy, and dividend season. They regard strong Micron earnings as inevitable given robust exports, but say the key is whether the results impress. They identify Oracle's force majeure circumstances, the discrepancy involving SK hynix's ADR, and overhead supply zones as variables, and explain contrarian trading in the range-bound KOSPI. All directional outlooks are the speakers' conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.