200 hundred-million dollars of OpenAI's revenue disappeared??
- What to look for
- You can examine the difference in calculation methods behind the 200 hundred-million dollar discrepancy between Bloomberg's 700 hundred-million dollars and the FT's 500 hundred-million dollars, as well as the controversy over stagnation in Anthropic's ARR.
- Why it matters
- Understanding ARR and the basis for revenue composition, such as direct sales and distribution revenue, helps you independently interpret reported figures for privately held AI companies and the market's reaction.
AI summary
With the Nasdaq falling 1.56%, the speaker reports news that, according to investor documents obtained by the Financial Times, OpenAI's annualized revenue (ARR) was approaching 500 hundred-million dollars at the end of September (month 9). The speaker says this differs by 200 hundred-million dollars from the 700 hundred-million dollars Bloomberg reported last month, prompting talk that 200 hundred-million dollars had disappeared. The speaker explains that the difference was not a revenue decline: investors adjusted OpenAI's figures for an apples-to-apples comparison with Anthropic, and the 700 hundred-million dollars, comprising 500 hundred-million dollars in direct sales plus 200 hundred-million dollars in distribution revenue through providers such as AWS and Google Cloud, was reported in an exaggerated way. OpenAI had originally disclosed revenue primarily from direct sales, and the speaker concludes that the latest FT figure of 500 hundred-million dollars was calculated using that same existing method. Nevertheless, investors who first saw 700 hundred-million dollars are disappointed, like seeing someone in person after seeing a filtered photo. The speaker says TickerTrends tracking showed ARR rising steadily, making this an episode caused by a change in the measurement basis. The speaker is more concerned that issues involving OpenAI and Anthropic make the entire market fluctuate, and also expresses concern about the KOSPI's trajectory. Anthropic's ARR has recently stagnated for a month or two, and there is talk of a delayed listing; the speaker worries that figures falling short of expectations could lead to weakness across the AI market. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.