Oil prices rise despite increased transport through Hormuz | Bloomberg

The video introduces an interview with oil strategist Julian Lee about the dilemma in which tensions around Hormuz and concerns about inventories, on one hand, and indications of transport returning to normal, on the other, pull oil prices up and down. It explains that prices fall when US Central Command, the administration, and some analysts say that more than 1,000 ten-thousand barrels a day are passing out through Hormuz, with flows almost back to normal, but rise again when Iranian attacks on tankers surge. It forecasts that the market will continue fluctuating for the time being with developments in tensions and attacks around Hormuz and the southern Red Sea. It reports that the futures curve still suggests oil prices will normalize, and that the US Department of Energy forecast an average Brent price of 85 dollars next year, higher than before the attack on Iran in February (month 2) but lower than recent levels. However, it points out that expectations of normalization in successive quarters have repeatedly been pushed back, and that the situation is likely to persist because both sides are reluctant to make the concessions needed for a long-term solution. It explains that European releases of diesel and crude oil reserves would benefit consumers in the short term if they translate into actual supply, but are a one-off measure drawing on finite inventories. It warns that releasing reserves without replenishing them would leave no room to respond to a supply squeeze 5 months to 6 months later, and that falling prices could encourage consumption by signaling ample supply, worsening the situation over the longer term. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional assessments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.