"Have home prices started falling?" Next year’s housing market could be frightening (Professor Han Moon-do)
Learning guide
- What to look for
- See how a forecast of housing weakness connects individual transactions, gifts, supply policy and rates. The final segment considers upward pressure alongside variables that could change it.
- Why it matters
- Place sales and gift counts for the same area and period in separate columns, and record announcement, construction and occupancy dates separately for supply projects. Instead of multiplying a property price or capital gain directly by the top tax rate, apply the tax base and progressive deduction to check assessed tax and avoid confusing forecasts with actual household costs.
Timeline
6 segmentsHe treats constraints on Seoul completions as upward pressure but presents an outlook conditional on rates and government supply measures. The probability of US rate increases, matching Korean increases, and presale prices or schedules for particular districts are not confirmed facts, and this note does not present those figures or dates as verified predictions. Separating available inventory from future completions and approved borrowing capacity from actual interest costs helps identify why the same claim of a supply shortage can produce different conclusions.