The stock market in quarter 4: The mood is changing | Lee Ji-hwan, CEO of Aurora Investment Advisory [Weekend Interview]
- What to look for
- You can follow the process of developing an outlook for quarter 4 by interpreting sharp declines and intraday volatility through ETF and derivatives flows rather than earnings, and checking for rotation into AI stocks after negative developments have been absorbed.
- Why it matters
- This helps organize key variables such as Micron's HBM4 guidance, foreign investor flows, and midterm election policies, along with sector-specific selection criteria.
AI summary
CEO Lee Ji-hwan attributes the recent sharp declines and intraday volatility in the Korean stock market more to ETF and derivatives flows than to corporate earnings, and advises against overreacting to temporary fluctuations. He interprets the successive rebounds in US power equipment, memory, and CPU stocks, even after major negative developments, as evidence that AI-related capital flows remain active. For quarter 4, he sees Micron's HBM4 outlook, Samsung Electronics' and SK hynix's earnings, foreign investor flows, and policies around the US midterm elections as key variables. His view is to select semiconductor and power equipment companies based on their individual profits and orders, lower expectations for consumer discretionary stocks, and monitor nuclear power's long-term export potential.