Oil prices | “The US doesn’t need Middle Eastern oil” and the argument that the Iran war serves Israel | Professor Park Hyun-do #2 [Dogi Academy]
An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.
Why oil exports can still stall when a bypass pipeline is available
Suppose a hypothetical exporter loses 600,000 barrels per day on its usual route. The bypass pipeline has spare capacity of 500,000 barrels a day, the port can load another 400,000, and safely available vessels can carry another 300,000. The route can replace only the smallest of these amounts, 300,000 barrels a day, leaving a 300,000-barrel shortfall. Even if vessel capacity rises to 500,000 barrels a day, the unchanged port limits replacement to 400,000, leaving a 200,000-barrel shortfall.
Check for yourself
- How much would replacement exports change if port capacity increased but vessel allocation stayed the same?
- If a second bypass uses the same port, which spare capacity should you check to avoid counting it twice?
Limits of application
This hypothetical calculation assumes a single bypass with successive steps. It excludes actual volumes, insurance costs, inventories and transit times.
- What to look for
- See why bypassing Hormuz can still leave crude shipments exposed to constraints at Yanbu and along the Red Sea route.
- Why it matters
- Compare available pipeline, port and shipping capacity to identify what limits exports and calculate how much the bypass replaces.
Timeline
9 segmentsSaudi Arabia can use its East–West pipeline to send crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and bypass Hormuz. EIA notes that risks on the southern Red Sea route can also constrain exports from Yanbu. The guest mentions Iraqi overland transport as another option, with actual replacement volumes depending on transport and port capacity.