Indicator Tracker (0903 Thu)
- What to look for
- You can examine the assessment that identified an unwinding of yen carry trades as a possible cause of the sharp decline, with the KOSPI below its 21-period moving average and the KOSDAQ below 800, while reserving judgment pending confirmation from the New York session.
- Why it matters
- This helps you learn how to interpret concurrent bearish signals from the yen, interest rates, WTI, and breaks below moving averages, and the criteria for maintaining a year-end outlook of 7,500 while taking a conservative approach in September (month 9).
AI summary
The assessment was that foreign investors remained net sellers both in the regular session and on a cumulative weekly basis, while the KOSPI was below its 21-period moving average and the KOSDAQ had broken below the 800 level, increasing the technical vulnerability of domestic indices. Yen strength and an unwinding of yen carry trades were presented as leading possible causes of the sharp intraday decline, but judgment was reserved on whether this reflected intervention by US and Japanese authorities or actual position liquidation, pending confirmation after the New York session. With yen strength, rising interest rates, a sharp WTI surge, and breaks below moving averages by major indices, Samsung Electronics, and SK hynix occurring simultaneously, the assessment was that buying support was weak and there was a risk of further declines in the short term. However, while maintaining the year-end KOSPI forecast of 7,500, the conclusion was that a conservative approach was needed because September (month 9) could see an initial decline followed by a rebound.