Overcome this to join the top 10% | Chesley Investment Advisory, Park Se-ik [War-Mae-Shin-Park / 26.10.28, Wed]
An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.
Can an unchanged price meet its moving average?
If hypothetical monthly closing prices are 160, 100 and 100 in order, the 3-month simple moving average is 120. If the next month also closes at 100, the window becomes 100, 100 and 100, and the average is 100. The latest price can meet the average without rising because the older high price drops out.
Check for yourself
- Which new price enters and which older price leaves the window?
- Is this a simple or differently weighted average, and are the monthly closes final?
Limits of application
This uses hypothetical prices, not a KOSPI forecast. It illustrates only the arithmetic of meeting an average, not subsequent direction probabilities or trading returns.
- What to look for
- Distinguish psychological rules of thumb from forecasts based on charts and earnings.
- Why it matters
- Check whether a moving-average touch reflects a price change or a rolling calculation window, and examine earnings and valuation assumptions behind a rebound forecast.
Timeline
5 segmentsAsked whether a monthly moving average must be touched before a rebound, the speaker notes that the average itself moves. Its change depends on both the incoming price and the older price leaving the window, so extrapolating a recent change is conditional. A touch or crossover alone does not establish rebound timing.