Dead cat bounce or the start of a major rebound? Lessons from ten semiconductor declines of around 10% since 1994 | Retail sold and institutions bought
An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.
Measure a rebound against the index level before the decline
A hypothetical index at 100 falls 12% to 88. A 4.2% gain from 88 the next day brings it to 91.696, for a cumulative two-day return of about -8.30%. It recovers 3.696 points, or 30.8% of the original 12-point loss. Returning directly from 88 to 100 would require a gain of about 13.64%.
Check for yourself
- Which session’s index level is the denominator of the rebound return?
- What would the index level be after recovering half of the previous loss?
Limits of application
The calculation uses rounded hypothetical figures. It does not validate actual index closes or predict the size of any rebound.
- What to look for
- See how a next-session gain differs from the fraction of a prior loss recovered, and identify comparison criteria for historical selloffs.
- Why it matters
- Check how the sample was selected and compare flows, earnings and session timing separately to clarify the basis for a rebound assessment.
Timeline
5 segmentsIn the selected historical episodes, similar next-session moves were followed by different paths weeks later. Replication requires a clear selloff threshold, a rule for overlapping episodes and a defined comparison window. A small sample offers limited evidence for estimating rebound probabilities or the causal effect of earnings changes.