"A Warning About AI" Still, Keep 60% in It... Why? | CEO Oh Dong-seok, Al Sangmu [Weekend Interview]

In a SamproTV weekend interview, CEO Oh Dong-seok, known as Al Sangmu, says the time to short is when nobody is talking about shorting, and introduces the 5% contrarian rule he used during his hedge fund days and his current long position in bonds. He explains that humans have a short forecasting horizon, that developments rarely follow the smooth path people expect—as with secondary batteries (2-cha jeonji), the metaverse, and 3D printers—and that stocks are a monetary phenomenon, so asset prices tend to rise, but not at a constant pace. He says the US-China Cold War has already begun, views 2014 as the crest of the wave of global reconciliation, and argues that the Cold War and duplicative investment actually create opportunities for Korean shipbuilding, defense, and other industries. Although the KOSPI has fallen from 9,300 into the 7 thousand range, he forecasts a year-end level between 7,500 and 8 thousand. He explains that foreign investors mechanically adjust their holdings in proportion to market capitalization, and expects them to turn into buyers when a revaluation takes place next year. Citing conciliatory signals between the US and China and his thesis of a world divided between them, he argues that Korean semiconductors are undervalued, with Korea possessing "lost technology" that it sells to both sides. He says semiconductor prices need to be reassessed if enthusiasm for AI fades, and presents a skeptical view of AI based on the S-curve of technological development and a structural deficit in the range of 20 trillion to 30 trillion won. Even so, out of a portfolio of 100, he recommends 60 in AI and semiconductors, 25 in bonds, and 15 in gold. He calls crypto a frustrated dream and says a single global currency based on stablecoins is impossible because of issues of power. All directional forecasts are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.