[US Market Update for Friday, September (month 9) 25] Stocks hold up well amid a bond plunge!

On September (month 9) 25, US stocks recovered their intraday losses and the major indexes finished nearly flat, but the presenter judges that stocks held up very well compared with the sharp weakness in the bond market. US Treasury yields rose to around 5.2% for the 10 year maturity and around 5.5% for the 30 year maturity, while Japanese long-term yields also increased. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, a rebound in oil prices, and remarks by Federal Reserve officials about further tightening coincided. A US Treasury auction for the 7 year maturity also cleared at a much higher yield than previously, increasing concerns about bond demand and borrowing costs. Iran indicated a willingness to pursue phased negotiations exchanging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for the lifting of the US blockade, but Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia unsettled oil prices and yields again. The popularity of Meta's AI services supported Meta and CPU-related stocks, but semiconductors overall were not strong, and delays to Oracle's data center project also demonstrated practical bottlenecks in AI infrastructure expansion. The video introduces research suggesting that AI investment during 2025~2032 could be larger relative to US GDP than historical investment in railroads, highways, and fiber optics, and raises the risk of a long-term bubble on that basis. At the same time, because AI capital expenditure currently supports US growth and employment and demand for GPU rentals remains high, the presenter does not regard the AI narrative as having collapsed at this point. Low initial unemployment claims and strong consumption and growth could allow the Federal Reserve to focus more on containing inflation. The presenter concludes that the key variable ahead is which force will prevail: high interest rates or AI growth.