“I Thought Things Were Going Well...?” The Critical Reason Russia Cannot End the War 📰 [Park Jung-ho's Weekly Economics]
- What to look for
- You can examine the issues, from the structural reasons the war has dragged on to the illusion surrounding Russia's economy, changes in drone warfare, and the calculations behind Western support.
- Why it matters
- Understanding the characteristics of territorial wars and wars of attrition, along with the logic of postwar reconstruction, helps in assessing the direction of war-related news.
AI summary
Park Jung-ho explains that, as the Russia–Ukraine war enters its 5th year, full-scale wars aimed at reclaiming territory are inherently protracted, and this one has dragged on because Russia has failed to establish overwhelming superiority. He says Putin's Crimea-style annexation scenario was thwarted by Ukraine's determination to fight to the death. He assesses the growth in the 4% range early in the war as an illusion created by military production running at full capacity, unrelated to ordinary people's livelihoods, and says the economy has now contracted under high inflation, high interest rates, and labor shortages. He explains that Ukraine is holding out by using AI and inexpensive drones to strike Russian heavy weapons and facilities inside Russia with relatively few personnel. He says Western support will continue for the time being, but with compensation for postwar reconstruction in mind, and that humanitarian and indirect support would be better for South Korea than direct weapons assistance. He concludes that, in a war of attrition that favors neither side, whether Western support continues is the key development to watch in determining its course. All assessments of possible directions are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive short-term price forecasts.