The exchange rate plunges into the 1,350 won range: Is it time to buy dollars or sell them? (Park Jong-hoon's Knowledge in One Shot)
- What to look for
- You can explore a discussion that distinguishes currency speculation from long-term investing at an exchange rate in the 1,350 won range and presents a rule for exchanging money in installments based on the average over the preceding 3 years.
- Why it matters
- This helps you learn criteria for foreign currency diversification, including an action threshold based on the 36-month average, holding safe assets alongside other investments, undershooting, and structural factors behind won depreciation.
AI summary
Although the exchange rate has fallen into the 1,350 won range, the discussion argues that the dollar should be approached not as a means of earning short-term foreign exchange gains, but as a long-term asset for compounding and a diversification tool to offset an excessive concentration in won. The speaker presents a rule: when the exchange rate falls below its average over the preceding 3 years, exchange money into dollars in installments over a period of time rather than buying all at once. Citing the current 36-month average of 1,403 won and the September (month 9) 4 closing rate of 1,350 won, the speaker explains that the rate has moved below the action threshold. However, the speaker says that US assets such as the Nasdaq can also fall by 50~60% every 8~12 years, so investors should also hold safe assets such as short-term US bonds and gold rather than concentrate on any particular asset. The speaker analyzes how responses by the government and the Bank of Korea, along with companies selling dollars, could cause the exchange rate to undershoot its average, while fiscal, demographic, and export structures could sustain pressure for won depreciation over the long term.