US midterm alarm: Trump and Republicans trail Democrats

An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.

More votes nationally can still produce fewer seats

Assume 3 hypothetical districts, each with 100 valid votes and one seat awarded to the candidate with the most votes. Party A and Party B receive 80 versus 20 in the first district and 49 versus 51 in each of the other two. A totals 178 votes and B 122. A receives about 59.33% of all 300 votes but wins 1 seat, while B wins 2. Concentrated support illustrates why a national vote advantage does not guarantee a seat majority. Polling is an earlier stage still, requiring survey dates, samples, turnout and local competition to be examined.

Check for yourself

1. Does the cited figure measure national party preference or support for a local candidate?
2. How do favored-seat totals classify toss-ups, seats not up for election and independents?

Limits of application

This calculation assumes equal vote totals, two-party competition and local plurality winners; it is not an actual US election forecast. State-based Senate structure, seats not up for election, independents, local electoral rules and turnout differences are not modeled. It calculates neither survey error nor a party’s victory probability.