The government bond yields you are currently worried about will reverse soon. (Lee Sun-yup) | Infomax Live 261007

The speaker explains that rising interest rates can coexist with a rising index when they reflect improving economic conditions, but that high rates impose different burdens on different companies, widening the performance gap between the index and individual stocks. The speaker presents the view that both the Korean and US markets need to be considered because of the diversity of AI investment and commercialization ecosystems. On exchange rates, the speaker argues that forecasting has limitations because it is difficult for outsiders to determine the size and timing of major exporters’ currency conversions. The speaker interprets the recent sharp rise in US and European government bond yields as being influenced not only by war and fiscal concerns but also by hedge funds’ unwinding of leveraged positions and short-selling flows. The speaker presents a scenario in which government bond short covering could quickly lower yields if price stability is confirmed, but explicitly states that several conditions, including CPI and diplomatic developments, would need to be met. The speaker also says that foreign selling in the domestic market should be distinguished between long-term capital outflows and short-term position adjustments; claims concerning statistics by nationality and particular funds’ restrictions on including assets require further confirmation of their scope of application. On bonds, the speaker distinguishes the possibility of a short-term price rebound from the limitations on medium- to long-term declines in yields, and expresses caution about ultra-long-term bonds and expanding equity investment. All directional outlooks are the speaker’s conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.