Ystreet — the compounding effect of knowledge and assetsSeptember 30, 2026

Lower your expectations—don't get greedy now! But I'm keeping an eye on this stock / Chairman Nam Seok-kwan (Part 2)

What to look for
You can review the assessment of Micron's earnings, comments on physical AI, Hyundai Motor, shipbuilding and defense, and materials, parts, and equipment, along with checkpoints for quarter 4.
Why it matters
This helps explain how a framework of market leaders, concentrated buying, and technical trading leads to lower expectations and principles for survival.

Chairman Nam Seok-kwan believes Micron's earnings, due in the early hours of month 10, day 1, will merely confirm guidance rather than serve as a catalyst, and that, as with Nvidia and Samsung, even an earnings surprise is unlikely to produce a turnaround or a new high. He says US stocks tend not to fall much after reaching highs because capital from around the world is concentrated there, making buying after sharp declines effective, but that the US cannot be compared with Korea. After Micron's 10-fold and SanDisk's 40-fold gains, he expects them to trade sideways near their highs because of the strain from those gains, while making a crash conditional on oversupply emerging 1~2 years later. Semiconductors remain the leading stocks of both the market and the era, but he describes a dilemma involving selling pressure, overextension, and concentrated buying following the index's 3-fold and SK Hynix's 10-fold gains. He says to lower expectations, abandon ambitions for 50~100% returns, and recognize that even 5% is difficult. For physical AI, he suggests buying selected companies with genuine capabilities or likely benefits on pullbacks in months 11~12, citing the learning effect from last year's rally spanning months 12~1 and the example of Wonnew Holdings. He sees Hyundai Motor as having roughly halved from 76 ten thousand won to 35 ten thousand won, with no appeal without profits from its core business and only the potential Dynamics listing remaining as a variable. He says shipbuilding, defense, and nuclear-power stocks cannot advance because the semiconductor-led market concentrates buying elsewhere and leaves them sidelined; Doosan Enerbility at 8.6 ten thousand won is fairly valued relative to the index, but he is afraid to actually buy it. He says that if you get stuck holding losing positions, they should at least be in market leaders or the leading stocks of the era. He discusses disposing of low-quality stocks, trading individual KOSDAQ names in materials, parts, and equipment, biotechnology, and optical communications, and expectations for increases in Q and CAPA. He says inference-chip, Meta Muse, and fabless stocks should be approached through short-term trades, careful selection, and technical trading using the 20-day moving average and taking profits at 5~10%. For quarter 4, he advocates modest profits, watching from the sidelines, and a winding-down mindset, emphasizing principles of avoiding unrecoverable losses, cutting losses, remaining flexible, and letting opportunities pass, along with survival, correcting one's approach, and thinking things through individually. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.

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